Indecent Proposal

Under surveillance of inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran commenced today further enriching its low-enriched uranium (LEU) to just below 20%. This has to be considered a major diplomatic backlash for the West and Israel who have an enormous interest in preventing Iran from further enriching uranium.

Iran pretends that it urgently needs this fuel for fabricating medical isotopes in its research reactor in Tehran (TRR), which had been installed in 1967 by the United States. In the 1990s, Iran had bought fuel rods from Argentina. This material is now running out. So, Iran’s first and most reasonable option was to buy new fuel and inform the IAEA about it.

After Iran had asked the IAEA on June 2, 2009, just days before the presidential election with its disputed results, for new fuel rods for the TRR, western powers (P5+1) and, in particular, the Obama Administration, came up with the suggestion that Iran could swap most of its so far produced LEU (about 1,200 kg) to Russia for further enrichment while fuel rods would be provided later by France. The possible deal was mainly worked out by the former Director General of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, and initially positive signals were sent by both sides. However, as far as we know, domestic power struggles and the difficult situation after the election prevented Iran’s rulers, and in particular, its president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from accepting the proposal as is. In the meantime, Iran has repeatedly offered modifications of the deal, for instance, a swap on Iranian territory and/or a swap in several fractions. Last weekend, Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki tried to explain, at his surprise visit of the Security Conference in Munich, the country’s willingness to find a solution in the “not so far future.” His words fell on deaf ears. Iran was blamed for playing for time.

The West’s stubborn ‘sink-or-swim’ policy and new threats of imminent sanctions, even military attacks, concede Iran’s rulers’ distrust in the Obama Administration’s honesty when calling the country to eventually unclench its fist. The fuel swap has always been an indecent proposal.

It is not clear whether Iran can actually use its so far produced LEU for further enrichment. Technical problems and contamination may put centrifuges at risk if they are to be fed with this material. The IAEA will carefully watch what is going on at the Natanz enrichment facility. Then, the issue of manufacturing fuel rods for the TRR is completely unsolved. Presently, only France and Argentina are producing them in noteworthy quantities. What Iran has so far produced was supposed to be fuel for the reactor in Bushehr which might finally be operational later this year. So, further enrichment plants, as have been announced previously, may in fact be imminent.

By and large, the West’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program will be greater and surveillance more difficult; a diplomatic disaster. Iran still keeps the door open for negotiations. It is high time for the West to consider the minor obstacles for an honest deal.

Last update February 9, 2010.

Domestic Power Struggles

The uranium swap charade in Iran enters the next round. Last Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad said in an interview on State TV that the suggested nuclear deal “was acceptable”. At a surprise attendance at the Security Conference in Munich, his Minister of Foreign Affairs Manouchehr Mottaki talked in the night owl session with Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. Mottaki’s midnight small talk and his subsequent statements raised eyebrows, though, especially when he claimed that an agreement could be reached in a “not too distant future.”

Yesterday, Mottaki also met with the new Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano for discussing Iran’s nuclear program. While Mottaki was optimistic about the talks, Amano wasn’t. “There was not a new proposal. We exchanged views,” he told reporters after the meeting. In particular, Mottaki had apparently not conveyed the good news to Amano that his president was willing to swap Iran’s low-enriched uranium. “I didn’t receive the counter-proposal,” Amani said.

Meanwhile, important powers within the country strike back. According to the Mehr News Agency, Iran’s speaker of the Majlis Ali Larijani yesterday called the whole swap “a swindle.”

“They (the Western powers) say that you (Iran) must provide fuel for the Tehran reactor the way we say and, if you don’t do this, we will punish you.

“But they know this is a political swindle and that they are trying to ensure Iran’s enriched uranium is removed from the Islamic republic.”

So, the power struggle within Iran’s complicated regime is not over yet. It might even intensify in the preparation of the festivities on the occasion of the 31^st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution next Thursday, 22 Bahman, when again violent mass demonstration for and against the regime have to be expected.

Update at 9:30 GMT: Maybe, Larijani’s outcry has already brought Ahmadinejad to terms. Speaking at the exhibition of Laser Science and Technology Achievements, he announced that he has asked Ali Akbar Salehi, the country’s nuclear chief, to begin with uranium enrichment up to 20%.

Nuclear Iran

The unclassified part of Director of U.S. National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair’s report for the Senate Select Committee of Intelligence does not present anything new about Iran, nothing which has not been known so far. Of course, it mentions the new enrichment facility in Qom, but whether Iran has made the political decision to manufacture nuclear weapons is still unclear. The report mentions that 8000 centrifuges are currently installed in Natanz but there seem to problems since only about half of the installed centrifuges are operating.

“Irans’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our 2007 NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so. These advancements lead us to reaffirm our judgment from the 2007 NIE that Iran is technically capable of producing enough HEU (highly enriched uranium) for a weapon in the next few years, if it chooses to do so.”

Dennis C. Blair also points to the classified part:

“… In my classified statement for the record, I have outlined in further detail the Intelligence Community’s judgments regarding Iranian nuclear-related activities, as well as its chemical and biological-weapons activities and refer you to that assessment.”

Iranian President Ahmadinejad might have had, in particular, the classified part in mind when having mentioned in yesterday’s interview with Iranian State television his surprising turn with a new offer to actually do the swap of low-enriched uranium in order to get enriched at 20% uranium for producing medical isotopes in Tehran’s research reactor.

Last update February 6, 2010

Intricate Patterns

Mathematic breakthroughs in the 10^th and 11^th centuries in Baghdad and, for instance, Esfahan may have resulted during the 15^th century in an explosion of Islamic Art and Architecture. In particular the use of so called girih tiles, that is a set of polygonal prototiles with well-defined decorating lines may have allowed medieval artists in Iran and Central Asia to create decagonal tessellations with, in few cases, Penrose-similar patterns. Between the mid-14^th and early 16^th centuries, the Timurids ruled over much of the Islamic world. The highly sophisticated and strictly geometric (‘Islamic’) patterns on glazed tiles covering buildings and monuments became later more and more floral. Exquisite examples of this changing style can be seen in Esfahan’s Grand Mosque and Darb-i Imam, Mashhad’s Gohar Shad mosque, or the Friday Mosque in Yazd.

The Timurids were repelled in Iran by the rulers of the Safavid dynasty (1501–1736 CE) who established the Shi’a branch of Islam as state religion. Many historians regard specific achievements during these centuries as the true apogee in Islamic Art and Architecture. One marvelous example is the Naqsh-e Jahan in Esfahan. Geometric, calligraphic and floral designs cover both religious and secular buildings while ancient roots of the Iranian society, in particular the Achaemenid style of intricately carved wooden ceilings and slender pillars are well preserved in certain palaces, reminding of the grandeur of ancient Persepolis.

Another area where the specific designs of the Safavid period can still be studied is few surviving carpets of that time.  Two years ago, Christie’s Auction House has sold an Esfahani silk carpet of about 1600 for an, at that time, record amount of $4,450,500. I was wondering at that time, how many of these inalienable carpets are still hoarded by wealthy Tehran bazaaris in their vast storages.

Well, some of these masterpieces have only survived in paintings of the European Renaissance period (14^th to 16^th centuries). Famous examples include paintings of Hans Holbein the Younger (ca. 1498-1543) and Lorenzo Lotto (1480-1556). Saudiaramco World has dedicated an article in its recent issue to “Threads on Canvas”, i.e., mainly Anatolian carpets displayed on famous Renaissance paintings (by Tom Verde). Some of the carpet designs are even called after Holbein, and others may have been identified on still existing pieces. In particular Holbein’s portrait of merchant Georg Giesze, or Giesze as the painting was entitled by the artist, (1532) is a fascinating masterpiece illustrating much of the life circumstances of the confident young man, for example his engagement (the carnations in a fragile vase placed too close to the edge of the table) and wealth, symbolized by the carpet on the table. The strapwork border and even the design of the central field can actually be seen in an Anatolian carpet in the Philadelphia Museum of Art.

Another example by Holbein is the famous Ambassadors (1533) which may strike the viewer by its surrealistic anamorphic skull in the lower third of the painting, which is only discernible as such when the picture is viewed at an acute angle. It is what nowadays would be called a gimmick, both to shock, or at least surprise, the viewer and impress him or her for the superior mastering of the complicated technique. Again, the table is covered by an Anatolian carpet with a ‘large-pattern Holbein’ design. A similar existing example can be found in the Museum für Islamische Kunst in Berlin, Germany.

More about carpets of the Ottoman era in general and Holbein carpets in particular may be found here.

© Preussischer Kulturbesitz/Bridgeman Art Library; Philadelphia Museum of Art; Saudiaramco World  

Last update: Febraury 1, 2010

R.D. Parsons’ Rugs

For all who are interested in carpets from Afghanistan, Volume 3 of the Antique Collectors’ Club Oriental Rugs series by R. D. Parsons is a must [1]. Parsons not only displays more than 150 color plates with beautiful examples but also provides the fascinated reader with most valuable information about the manufacture of carpets and the people of Afghanistan before and during the 10 years of war with the Soviet Union. Almost twenty years of the brutal regime of the Taliban and the war after 9/11 has, of course, devastated the country and the people further.

R. D. Parsons had published the third edition of his book in 1990. It has tremendously helped me in studying my own pieces over the years [2]. Many color plates had been added since previous editions and respective numbers have got letters, a, b, c. In the Acknowledgements section Parsons thanks Shir Khosrow Paiwand “whose superb collection of old Beluch rugs he so generously placed at my disposal.” These additional carpets have apparently been provided by Mr. Paiwand. Dinie Gootjes now reports on Turkotek that Mr. Paiwand and his younger brother have, as so many Afghans, moved in the meantime to Canada where they maintained their carpet business in Ontario. On December 5, 2009, they opened their new carpet shop in Mississauga in the Greater Toronto Area where they displayed a dozen of the rugs illustrated in Parsons’ book. According to Dinie Gootjes, the pieces have not been shown to the public since the 1980s.  

In contrast to claims by Ms. Gootjes, the pictures in Parsons’ book [3] are of higher quality than those she took in Mr. Paiwand’s location. Nevertheless, some of her close-ups are marvelous and reveal the beauty of the pieces.

 

Notes

[1] A valuable source for the study of Iranian Baluchi carpets is, of course, S. Azadi’s Carpets in the Baluch Tradition, Klinkhardt & Biermann, München 1986.

[2] When living in Kuwait, my western friends and I loved to visit Hussein and Ali’s two-storey rug shop downtown, opposite Mubarakia Souk. Especially Hussein, a young lad from Afghanistan, a Shi’te, as he told us, was an eloquent and talented teacher who almost gave lectures on his main topic, tribal carpets from Afghanistan. He liked to distribute a copy of the map of Afghanistan which was divided into a northern and a southern half. Rugs and carpets from the northern part were called Turkoman, as he explained, while those from the south were Baluchis. He didn’t want to bother us further but rather elaborated his stories about young girls weaving beautiful carpets for their dowry. You may find similar stories in Parsons’ book about the beautiful works of art made by girls and women (p. 37):

“When a girl approached marriageable age – usually in her early teens – she and other women in her family would start to weave carpets, bags and other pieces for her dowry. If a would-be suitor was not considered acceptable, the girl’s father would answer that the dowry pieces were not yet completed. This tactful answer saved any loss of face. On the other hand, if the match was considered suitable, a tacit agreement was reached and the weaving of the pieces accelerated!”

 

[3] According to color plate 96a in R.D. Parsons’ book, the first rug is an “old TAIMANI rug from the Ghor region region of west central Afghanistan. This harmonious piece, dating from circa 1935, has a classical weaving structure and the colours that are found in the older Charchaghan kilims, i.e., madder, a soft olive green, indigo, gold and undyed brown wool. The upper kilim measures 18cm, the lower 14cm. (161 x 111 cm).”

The second is featured in color plate 95a. “An old FARAH carpet made in two pieces. Although depicting the owzi design which is associated with the Adraskhan production, the back of this carpet has a much rougher feel than comparable Adraskhan pieces, denoting the use of somewhat overspun yarn, a  characteristic  of the Farah production, which also gives the back a different appearance. A peculiar feature of this piece is its shape, which is almost square. The kilims are wide, the upper measuring 33cm and the lower 31 cm.” (Late 19th century; 215 x 191cm).”

The third piece can be seen in color plate 7a: “A striking example of a finely woven old TAGHAN JUWAL. One of a pair and now backless, this dowry piece is noteworthy for having pale green silk in the secondary guls and for the inclusion of kermes (cochineal) in the center of the primary gul. The light indigo of duck-egg blue colour of the double ram horn motif in the border suggests that this juwal was woven in Taghan-Labijar. (Circa 1920; 152 x 97 cm).”

Last update January 30, 2009

Sola Tilbake

Always a big issue, the return of the sun at  69˚40’N 18˚56’E yesterday was celebrated by all international staff with a cacophonia of Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian, and English. Berliner Bollen were served and pictures taken of the sun which still hid itself behind the mist. For this post, I had to chose a picture of 2008 which had been taken from the institute’s terrace on the same occasion.

Wintertime is not easy here, not even for the locals. To get used to the two-month darkness takes a long time. The week started with raining cats and dogs and melting away all of the little snow which had been accumulated since November last year. Temperatures at 4 or even 6 centigrades above zero, 300 miles north to the Arctic Circle. It might be a sign of rapid global warming.

Tunnels

 

 

In another pretty provocative (after last month’s demand for ‘bombing Iran’ by Alan J.Kuperman) and, I suppose intentionally meant, alarming New York Times op-ed William J. Broad assumes that, over the years, Iran had largely expanded a tunnel system, thus enabling the regime in Tehran to fortify its (allegedly clandestine) nuclear program and hide it from possible attacks.

Even given that there has no evidence been provided declassified so far that Iran has further, hidden, nuclear sites the International Atomic Energy Agency is unaware of, President Ahmadinejad, who seems to be a ‘tunnel expert’, had announced already end of November 2009 that the country will now largely increase its enrichment activities with 500’000 new centrifuges spinning in another ten or so sites other than those in Natanz and Fordow near Qom. Thus, Iran seems to directly respond to threats by Israel and the US to attack the already known sites by digging in: a classic example for the counter-productive effects of lack of diplomacy.

Broad mentions six tunnel entrances in the nearby mountain(s) of Esfahan’s uranium conversion plant, which can easily be traced by GoogleEarth. By the way: on the other side of the mountain, the Khorasgan branch of Islamic Azad University is located.

Happy New Year 2010!

Taking the Gloves Off

If there had been any doubt that the regime in Iran would eventually break down all opposition, today’s disturbing news tell a different story. The more or less silenced leaders of the ‘Green Movement’, Messrs Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, may in fact be on the run. Mousavi’s wife, Zarah Rahnavard, may have been arrested. His nephew has been shot dead.

State dependent presstv has zeroed in on those which have been out on the streets on Tasu’a and Ashura protesting against the government and those who haven’t dared on these holiest days in the Iranian calendar. An alleged relationship to the terror organization of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) is a dangerous sign of an attempt to escalate the situation further.

The Islamic theocracy raises its ugly head. The revolutionary guards and the clique around Ali Khamenei have nothing to loose. They have to avoid a civil war. They will brutally crack down any opposition.

Person of the Year 2009

On the Day of Tasu’a, when millions of Shi’ites in Iran and elsewhere commemorate the beginning of the martyrdom of the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, Imam Husayn at Kerbala in 680 CE, The Times has announced that Neda Agha Soltan, only one martyr of the probably rigged Iranian presidential election, has been nominated Person of the Year 2009. It is a good choice and the timing is perfect.